Serious healing needed in a Parliament on edge

Follow the movers, shakers, and deal-makers in a post-election Europe.
By MAX GRIERA
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Hello all! As we start cooling off ahead of the summer recess, in today’s edition I wanted to look at the scars the electoral battle has left on the European Parliament’s political groups.
Yes, after the EU election campaign, polling night, and horse-trading frenzy that came after, including Ursula von der Leyen’s reelection, the Parliament has successfully rearranged itself and is ready to start hearings for commissioners in September. But as MEPs, assistants and staffers start going on holiday this week, one thing is crystal clear: there is much healing to be done among groups belonging to the centrist majority.
THE FAR RIGHT IS NOT GOING AWAY. During the election campaign, there was much talk about whether the center-right European People’s Party (EPP) would start siding with the radical right and whether a right-wing majority could be possible — especially after the EPP backtracked on key environmental policies and von der Leyen made ambiguous comments about her plans to work with Italy’s Giorgia Meloni.  
Von der Leyen vote means nothing: Yes, the EPP, Socialists (S&D), liberals (Renew) and Greens somehow managed to come together to back von der Leyen as Commission president. But no, that does not mean the center-right will stick to this centrist majority in future — or at least that’s what the progressive forces are all thinking.
Mistrust runs deep: “Unfortunately towards the end of the last mandate we have seen that more and more EPP members became radicalized on issues such as the landmark Nature Restoration law,” the leader of the Socialists in the environment committee, Tiemo Wölken, told POLITICO, still traumatized from the EPP’s last-minute revolt against a bill aimed at protecting Europe’s nature.
TRUTH IS, MAJORITIES HAVE SWUNG TO THE RIGHT. Left-wing groups and the liberals used to be able to get to a majority, but now it is the center-right that holds the keys to passing legislation. As you can see in this graph by our Hanne Cokelaere, a right-wing majority is possible in all committees — and in plenary — except for one: the committee on women’s rights and gender equality.
Political groups’ representation in Parliament’s committees.
Reality check: “The numbers are what they are, the arithmetic has changed, and this will manifest itself throughout the legislature,” Socialist MEP Juan Fernando López Aguilar told me over the phone. He added: “There may be an investiture majority [for von der Leyen] that does not count on the votes of the extreme right, but from then on, all the votes in legislative acts or resolutions of the European Parliament all are of variable geometry.” He said that “progressive votes [could be] reduced to a minority,” and argued that a right-wing majority in the constitutional affairs committee could have detrimental implications for reform of the Parliament’s rules of procedure and for the EU treaties.
First scare: Left-wing forces in the Parliament got their first taste of these new majorities during the civil liberties committee’s first session when they failed to block the election as vice-chair of a controversial MEP from the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists, Sweden’s Charlie Weimers. In that vote, the EPP sided with the ECR and the far-right Patriots for Europe and Europe of Sovereign Nations groups.
“This is a very bad precedent, having the EPP voting with all the extreme right,” MEP Fabienne Keller, the leader of Renew in the civil liberties committee, told me. She argued that even if the center-right does not negotiate with extreme parties, “it is not acceptable” that they vote alongside the far-right. Keller said doing so “is a clear breach” of the coalition that elected von der Leyen and Roberta Metsola.  
Asked by POLITICO, the EPP coordinator in the committee, Lena Düpont, said they “did not interfere in the group’s autonomy to pick their candidates, whether from left or right.”
Migration pact could have looked very different: In the last mandate, S&D, Renew, Greens and the Left were able to reach majorities, Keller said, also arguing that the new Asylum and Migration Pact could have looked very different with the makeup of the new Parliament. With a new directive on migrant returns in von der Leyen’s sights, Keller wants to sit and talk with the EPP. “We have to discuss this [with the EPP coordinator in the civil rights committee] again end of August when we start our work again.”
Greens on alert: “I clearly think that EPP for sure with ECR but potentially Patriots will seek majorities also in the AGRI committee, around topics like refusing strict mandatory social rights of agricultural workers, and when it comes to [going against] stricter regulation on pesticides and strict regulations for farming overall,” Green party co-chair and the group’s leader in the agriculture committee, Thomas Waitz, told me.
Backroom deal sealed? Waitz added that it is “clear” the ECR and parts of the EPP have already arranged an informal coalition “in the background,” which is reflected in “how they share the vice-presidents of the committee and also how they back each other when it comes to ongoing files, to keep them within ECR and EPP.”
ICYMI: The leader of ECR, Nicola Procaccini, said last week that they “hope the EPP will decide to shift as [much as] possible to the right,” affirming they still hope to work together despite voting against von der Leyen.
SOUL-SEARCHING IN SUMMER: With Parliament holidays starting this week, lawmakers are putting their anxiety on hold until September, when the bureaucratic machinery restarts, while also giving the EPP the benefit of the doubt.
Waiting part 1: “I can only call on them to join us in the democratic center and make the EU ready for a more sustainable and competitive future,” Wölken said, adding: “It is on the EPP to decide whether they want to work with the parties of the democratic center on a sustainable future for the EU, or whether they want to form a reactionary, populist pact with the far-right and the fascists, who want to end the EU as we know it.”
Waiting part 2: “We shall see how democratic groups work together in the upcoming legislature, the room for maneuver has shrunk considerably and the test will be the new legislative practice,” said Green MEP Sergey Lagodinsky, who is on the legal affairs committee.
Some still have faith: “I do not think so honestly, I have EPP in quite a high regard on this, for me it would be a big disappointment,” Renew’s Parliament vice-president Martin Hojsik told me when asked whether he feared center-right cooperation with the Patriots and ESN.
YOU’VE GOT MAIL! Before taking a break to spend time with her family, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen sent a letter to the EU’s national governments asking to put forward the two names of who they want to be in the next team of commissioners — one male, one female. Here’s a rundown by our Barbara Moens of the names nominated and floated, the plum jobs available, and the big prizes.
Gender balance is her first test. Von der Leyen’s gender balance demand is not just a question of equality, it also gives her more choice when building her team, a tricky exercise in which she’ll have to weigh up geography, political affiliation and skill sets. But above all: It’s the first big test of her authority as she prepares for her second term and she has already been met with opposition, Eddy Wax reports in today’s Brussels Playbook.
What comes next? Once von der Leyen composes her team, the commissioners-designate will need to face a round of hearings in the European Parliament towards the end of September, after submitting to a strict asset and financial interest screening test by the legal affairs committee.
QUID PRO QUO: Greece wants a plum portfolio when Ursula von der Leyen puts together her top team, PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis, who was instrumental in helping the European Commission president secure a second term, told POLITICO.
NICOSIA’S REQUEST: Cyprus also has its eye on an important gig: The newly created role of commissioner for the Mediterranean, Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides said.
MOVING UP: Former MEP Eluned Morgan is set to become the leader of Welsh Labour and the first minister of Wales — the first woman to serve in either role.
SPYWARE SCANDAL: German Green MEP Daniel Freund was targeted by a cyberattack weeks before June’s EU election. He claimed Hungary was the “most likely” culprit, as he led a push to suspend Budapest’s presidency of the Council of the EU.
WHY THE EP MATTERS: Don’t listen to the haters who say the real power lies with the Council and the Commission, the European Parliament is more vital and influential than ever. Here’s why.
EP FOR DUMMIES: If you’re a newcomer to the workings of the European Parliament, you’ll find this glossary particularly useful. And if you’re an old hand, you may just learn something too.
ZOMBIES AND GHOSTS AND SWINDLERS, OH MY! Forget parliamentary alliances and political ideologies, MEPs can all be divided into these seven tribes. Are you a ghost? Or perhaps a zombie?
THOUGH SHALT NOT … ACCEPT CASH FOR INFLUENCE: Check out this advice for MEPs on staying out of trouble (and jail) during their stint in the European Parliament.
MOVERS AND SHAKERS: With 720 MEPs, it can be hard to know who to watch. These are the 11 EU lawmakers to keep your eye on in the new term.
SERENITY NOW: Three MEPs told us how they stay sane and grounded in the sometimes soul-sucking Brussels bubble. For one of them, it involves a dairy cow named Rozalina (seriously).
COMMITTEE RULES: The European Parliament has 20 committees, and if an MEP wants to leave their mark in Brussels, they’ll need to learn how to navigate them. Luckily, POLITICO has some tips.
Current excitement level: I am immensely jealous of all the MEPs, assistants, and Parliament staffers who have started their summer holiday this week. Also, who am I going to talk to now?!
Last word: “Every bad deed causes bad karma, and I’m sure that will haunt you for the next five years,” MEP Roman Haider of Austrian party far-right party FPO — party of the Patriots for Europe group — lashing out at Greek EPP MEP Eliza Vozemberg, who snatched his seat as chair of the transport committee as part of a wider effort by centrist groups to keep far-right forces out of leadership positions.
Thanks to: Seb Starcevic, Hanne Cokelaere, Paul Dallison and Natália Delgado
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